Well, it’s finally polling day. The day Australians cast their ballots and have their say in who should lead our country.
The last five weeks have been a blast, watching your opinions unfold across social media. The insights and trends have been fascinating to watch, and by all accounts the result will be close. Very close.
What’s also been great is that Amnesia Razorfish has been able to work alongside Edelman’s Matthew Gain and other social experts to present a holistic and unified analysis on how the Election has performed in social media. Matthew has summarised Edelman’s Tweet Level work here and I recommend you read it.
So, let’s look at how the three leaders and parties averaged out during the election campaign across social media:
Share of voice:
It was a close call for the winner between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott. Tony just snuck in, with more conversation around him. The Greens clearly won the share of voice of conversations around their Party.
Median negative sentiment:
Again, you could split Julia and Tony with a hair in the median total of negative sentiment across Twitter. The negative sentiment is particularly pertinent as it indicated people’s voting preferences (more so than positive conversations). If we were to go purely on negative sentiment insights, Julia is the preferred PM.
Issues that matter to you:
The economy and climate change mattered most to voters in their online conversations. Surprisingly, climate change and the economy were largely forgotten by the Parties in the policy area this Election. And this led to significant negativity within voters. They wanted discussions on the issues that matter to them, and they didn’t get it. Perhaps we can reasonably assume this is a factor in the predictions that it will be a close call. Voters can’t choose because they don’t know what they stand for in the areas that matter.
And my prediction:
It will come down to marginal seats in Queensland and regional New South Wales.
Who will win? Labor, by the skin of their teeth with a 15 percent swing to the Greens. Liberals will walk out with 69 seats. Julia Gillard will be the first democratically elected female Prime Minister in Australia’s history.
Thank you for joining us on this ride of looking at the 2010 Federal Election’s social footprint. We have had an amazing time bringing this blog to you, and thank you for your readership and sharing your opinions every day. Also, I’d like to personally thank Rachel Beaney and Paul Cotton who have tirelessly worked to bring you this data, manually rated thousands of tweets for sentiment, and shared their expert social opinions. They truly are the dream team!
~ Karalee Evans, Social Strategy Manager x